See, at the time of the scandal, people latched on to the idea that Weiner's sexting capital-T Told us something about him--he had bad impulse control, he didn't think things through, his decision-making was suspect. And I would be right there with those people if Weiner had been some unknown guy and this was all we knew about him.
But he wasn't--he had a long Congressional history that could have capital-T Told us about him. When I looked at those pictures, here's what I thought: "I like his social positions, but some of his positions on Israel worry me."
(I also kept thinking about the Cold War attitude towards homosexuals as a liability; which meant that anyone who was homosexual had something they needed to hide--which might have made them a liability. Now, post-Weiner, I await the first sexting-blackmail scandal.)
So, Weiner (and team) made the wrong call, and here's the result: his seat is up for grabs. I don't think it will go Republican, but it's a waste of time and money for the Democrats.